Clone Chronicles: FanPosts

K-State/Iowa State Moving to Arrowhead

TB — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:18:47 -0000

Curious to hear what y'all think about our esteemed athletic directors moving the 2009 and 2010 football games to Arrowhead Stadium. My community has reacted pretty negatively, so I was curious to hear what you think. I'm not a big fan of schools moving games off campus, but for two athletic departments that really need more money, this may not be a terrible idea. Plus, I'll be living in KC by this time, so it will be a 10 mile drive to see my Cats.

A Thread on CF...

CY N Spurs fan — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 07:41:46 -0000

Was sent to bash Wayne Morgan, and the same group jumped on and spewed their opinions on what a worthless human being Wayne is.

I would never say that Wayne was a great coach, by any stretch of the imagination. But I find it funny that the biggest Greg McDermott, who hasn't won anything of note, supporters are the ones bashing away.

People seem to forget that NOBODY wanted the Iowa State coaching job when Wayne took over. We had been turned down by Jeff Lebo (who is struggling at Auburn), AND the guy at Wyoming, who has since been fired.

All Wayne did was get to an NIT Final Four, and the second round of the NCAA's. His last team had no experience in post, and so Stinson, and Blaylock had to try to do everything by themselves. Of course the Mac people march out what talented teams those were, as anyone can tell by all of the lottery picks, oh wait,

The thing that I find the most humorous is that we have a coach now that has NEVER won an NCAA game (he has won just a couple D 2 tourney games whoo hoo), and lost to the bad Morgan team with his best team. Add the fact that apparently NOBODY wants to play for him, once a better offer comes along, and you have a program in the condition that this one is in now. Plus the one win he had against Iowa State involved an unconscious performance from behind the arc.

Noone, let alone me, thinks that Wayne Morgan was the long term answer for the Iowa State program. But for any of the blindly loyal Dan McCarney type love that McDermott is getting, he has proved NOTHING.

As someone who remembers Lynne Nance, and that nightmare, as I sit and I watch Iowa State basketball die, it hurts a lot. Johnny, Tim, and Larry for two years made this program relevant, now we get ONE ESPN game. Good job Greg!

I am pretty sure that Jamie Pollard has a list of guys that may be the next one in. The problem is that the program may never again reach a level that we lead ESPN, like we did when WAYNE'S team went to Lawrence, and beat the number two team in the nation on their floor. Hell, I would just be happy to see Greg win ONE game that he isn't supposed to. I won't hold my breath.

When does accountability actually begin for...

CY N Spurs fan — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 19:51:29 -0000

Greg McDermott?

So the guy has been head coach at Iowa State for over three years now, and nobody seems to care.

He is currently working on yet another failed recruiting class. None of the top targets want to return his phone calls, and it looks like, YET AGAIN, we will have a staff chasing its collective tails on the recruiting trails this Spring signing another batch of leftovers.

The loyalists are still there, defending Greg with all of their might. They trot out the standard list of Iowa State excuses, the state of the program when he took over (at least partly his own doing), it takes time to do things the right way, "bad luck," and all of the like, as if they were robots, and this was their task. It's stated so many times that there are people that actually believe it, which is the scary part. There are people that think that it is impossible to win immediately by doing things "the right way." The last time I heard that it was year 12 of the Dan McCarney era, as we were staring at yet another last place finish.

Well here we are, two bad years down, and, still facing a serious talent deficit within the conference, year three doesn't show a lot of promise. Losing your best player, one of the three athletes that you had on the team, players leaving is yet another recurring theme that the blindly loyal still try to excuse. Jamie Pollard was none too pleased that he had to take over the Wesley Johnson transfer situation because he had to protect his coach from the family telling their side of the story.

So you assume that this year will be yet another of what we have seen the first two years; a fundamentally poor, boring, poor rebounding team that is completely overcoached to the point that they stand around not knowing what to do, then
what happens after this season?

Obviously Pollard will have a hard time pulling the trigger on this one, because that was his first hire after he ran off a coach that went to the NIT Final Four, and the second round of the NCAA Tournament seemingly due to a personality conflict. At that time, Jamie stated that ISU was a basketball school, now nobody cares about us (one ESPN game this year speaks LOUDLY to that fact).

But if this team tanks yet again, his hand may be forced. Season ticket sales are down, because fewer and fewer people want to watch this product.

Then you look at the recruitment of the most important player in Iowa State history, Harrison Barnes. Does anyone honestly think that he is even thinking about us anymore? But, Greg's future is directly related to getting him to play for us.

The national perception of Greg is that, while knowledgeable, he is in over his head in a BCS conference, and it's starting to seep into the Iowa State fanbase as well. This is a coach that needs a pr boost amongst his own fans, he needs a bone to be able to throw to them, and this would be it.

If Barnes does go somewhere else, with all of the advantages that we had the whole time he was coming on, then this staff will never be taken seriously by any top player.

How can Greg fix this?

Simple, win games. Quit getting outcoached by people like Ben Jacobsen. Quit losing to Drake. Win a big game. Quit being stubborn, your way may work in at the D2 and mid-major level, but you are in an athletes conference now. Ask Barry Collier, whose resume was much more impressive than Greg's when he left Butler for Nebraska, tried the systemic, coach players up approach, and failed miserably.

Iowa State has basketball tradition. Since 1985, we have been a known program, on a national scale. So the time for excuses is over, it has been demonstrated that you can win here. It's not too late to turn this around, but Greg is going to have to show he is the man for the job. At this point, I am not convinced, at all, that he can do it, I hope I am wrong.

What losing Barnes could mean....

CY N Spurs fan — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:49:01 -0000

As we read more and more about the exploits of Ames Jr. Harrison Barnes on the Summer circuit, it is becoming apparent that it will be difficult for Iowa State to land his services. The implications of Barnes choosing another school are concerning to say the least.

First, this staff is already fighting a p.r. battle with the perception that he cannot keep players. When your star player, the player that you publicly stated was the face of your program, leaves the way Wesley did sets off alarms all over the recruiting front. And the way that it played out, Wesley's mother threatening to tell their side of the story, and Jamie Pollard taking control of the situation, already is being talked about in potential recruit's living rooms across the country.

However, not being able to sign Harrison, with all of the built in advantages that he had in the process will make it even more difficult to sign top players.

Think about it, if you are a player that has many offers, and you hear that, aside from the losing records and player retention problems, that this coach couldn't seal the deal on the highest rated recruit in the history of the state, who lived in his own town, whose mother worked for the university, and whose father played at the school, and played with his son, and scrimmaged with his team, and went to every game, and.........well the list goes on.........How is any top player going to take him seriously, ever again??? And what coach won't use that against us. As we have seen, in the world of the Big 12, you have to have athletes to play, the "coaching up" of players is not a path to true, meaningful success. Barry Collier, who had a much more impressive resume than Greg McDermott found that out the hard way at Nebraska.

It should be a HUGE concern for Jamie Pollard, and don't think for a second that he has already second guessed himself for the rushed hire of a largely unproven coach that was Greg McDermott.

That being said, the Big 12 will be down this year, with all of the player losses, so it is conceiveable that we can possibly get to .500 in the league. With a soft non-conference schedule, we have, there is a chance for post season play. I just hope, that if he can beat a Kansas type team, even though they are down, he, and more importantly his supporters, doesn't pull a McCarney after beating bad Nebraska teams and act like he beat Tommie Frazier.

We are not in a position to let this mediocrity extend to many extra years, like we did with the football program, and leave the next coach as big of a rebuild as he inherited.

I hope that I am wrong about this, but I get less and less confident as time goes on.

Greg Mac getting too much slack.

tcon125 — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 18:45:32 -0000

Hello clone fans, I'm new to the blog, but a current ISU student. I'm down in Australia at the moment, but trying to keep up with the cyclones.

Greg McDermott has been a huge huge disappointment for me. When I say this to other ISU supporters I usually get tongue lashed saying I am not understanding the "building a program process" and the problems that come with it. But in honesty, that is not why I'm upset. I'm not upset because in his first two years we aren't competing with KU for the Big 12 crown. I'm not even upset about our record! Wins and loses have nothing to do with my criticism. I'm upset in our horrible, and I mean horrible, gameplans and offense sets. It is not a good coach without the talent scenario. It is obvious to see when a player is doing the right thing but an opposing player is better and steals the ball, blocks the shot, etc. But when a team is not even assembling to do anything worthwhile that falls on the coach.

I've played a little, and coached at the high school level, but I have never seen an offense as "grade schoolish" as the one used at ISU. 3 wing players and cross screen in the post is used almost exclusively. I've never seen a team consistently look that bad at offense and put up so few points. And it is not the talent level. It is not the players attitudes. It is not the players execution. If anything, they are executing too well by just standing in the spots Greg tells them to.

Mike Taylor was pretty much pegged as a ball hog who jacked up shots during his short tenure at ISU. I admit myself I hated his high turnover ratio and high shot attempts, but then I realized...Mike Taylor was trying to make plays. He often had 4 other players standing around in some BS offensive set and the shot clock was winding down and he had to make a play. That or he had a semi-fast break opportunity and was so giddy to take advantage of it because he didn't want to have to deal with another horrible half court set.

I wish I had the tape of the UNI game this past year. Mac's game plan was "we're taller", "we're better", cross screen and throw it inside. Occasionally swing the ball and shoot a three. Zero penetration. I remember vividly when Peterson put the ball on the floor and got to the lane. The first time he passed the ball for a basket, but the second time he turned it over. Mac stomped his foot and did his finger come here thing and lashed into Peterson...needless to say Peterson did not attempt to split the gaps and penetrate anymore...which by the way is what nearly all college offenses thrive on. (Duke doesn't even run a true offense anymore. They just tell players to drive gaps, rotate to open spots etc.)

Well UNI realized our offensive set after a few inside baskets, bumped the screen hard, fronted the post with a weakside help, and Jiri was severely limited after that. He still got his points, but only because we kept jamming the ball inside, at the expense of running a better game plan.

Greg recruited 5 players in 2006. All 5 are out of the program. He took the all-time leading scorer in Minnesota history, a 6-8 power forward who's greatest asset was his shooting touch and bringing a big man out to guard him, and put him in the 3 sometimes 4th string center position. ISU had three true centers last season, gray, hiri, and marsden. Why would you have all three on the bench and put Cory Johnson into center?!?! Mac had Johnson guarding Gred Oden when the team played OSU. That is just insanely poor management of players. Mac continually, and absurdly played Cory Johnson out of position this season, which hurt Johnson's numbers dramatically. Now he's gone. But of course Mac is thinking, who cares he wasn't that good. Well he wasn't good because you horrible mismanaged him coach.

Our best player, gets up and leaves the team. Wes Johnson, the final of the 5 players gets up and leaves. He doesn't even tell the staff. Can you say "Coaching staff obviously was not well connected with their star player". One player leaves no worries, two or three we should look into it, all 5....something is wrong.

Add on Vette, Brister and that is 7 players out of the program from two recruiting classes....something is wrong with this picture.

I can't think of something to say positively about Greg McDermott in the terms of basketball coaching, let alone program management. ISU fans have long long long been the most loyal and forgiving of fans. But this isn't middle school basketball and McDermott isn't a volunteer. If you are making big money, performance should be a criteria, and your performance should be scrutinized. Mac will get way too many chances, he is already getting too many with the "this is his first year" crap.

I don't care if this is your first year ever coaching basketball you should have a more dynamic offensive gameplan.

I hope I'm wrong, but I would be willing to bet when Greg McDermott is fired he will never have enjoyed a winning season as the head man, and the team will continually shuffle players in and out with transfers abound.

Iowa State '09 MBB Recruiting Look

cyismydog — Wed, 28 May 2008 22:45:46 -0000

Since I'm often times busy during the summer, I'm often looking for readers to contribute however they can, through features such as FanPosts and FanShots. This is a FanPost from the member cyismydog on the '09 men's basketball recruiting efforts. - CC

While Iowa state has offered a multitude of 2009 recruits, the staff seems to be concentrating on a select few players that are seriously considering Iowa State and those that would fit a variety of needs on the 2010 ISU team.

First, I'm going to examine the needs of the basketball team. There are two positions that need help the most on the ISU team, so the staff is focusing on recruiting players for those positions. Here is a detailed breakdown of ISU's recruiting needs, and who they are targeting to fill these positions.

1. The Guard Court: This is the last year for former walk-ons and key contributors Bryan Petersen and Sean Haluska. When they leave, the backcourt will be short on depth, and a scoring punch will be lacking off the bench, unless one of our current players really improves. The staff is targeting primarily one player to fill this hole. His name is Xavier Thames, a 6'5" combo guard with a great outside shot who can also break down defenders off the dribble. He has his own website at www.xavierthames.net. The main competition for Thames' services are the Cougars of Washington State, who recently put an offer on the table for the talented guard. Wazzu is perceived to have the inside track for Thames because of a family connection; Thames father played a season for the Cougars. Iowa State is still very much in the hunt for Thames services, though.
    In April, Thames made an unofficial visit to Iowa State on his own dime. He toured Iowa State's practice facilities, and met with Coach McDermott, who impressed him with his humor and knowledge of the game.
   Another guard who might get a look from ISU is talented IHCC guard Dwight Buycks. While he currently has offers from schools such as Tennessee and Wisconsin, he does not yet list an Iowa State offer. I think that will change though, with the addition to the Iowa State staff of former Indian Hills player Daniyal Robinson.
2. Small Forward: Wesley Johnson's departure has also affected the teams' recruiting. As of right now, Lucca Staiger is the only player that has the size and shooting ability to play the three on Iowa State's roster. While guard is the first recruiting option for the staff, there are several players that have been currently offered to play the small forward position
    CJ Wilcox, Pleasant Grove Utah.   "The best shooter I've seen in two years," said ISU assistant coach TJ Otzelberger after watching Wilcox play. A tall and gifted wing who can seemingly do it all on the court, he is a dead-eye shooter and a freakish athlete that can jump out of the gym. His only downside is an average, at best, handle. ISU recently offered Wilcox a scholarship, but new competition has jumped into the race for this talented wing in the form of Miami of Florida. Check out this youtube video compiled by his father Craig, a former standout on the hardwood for BYU himself. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGaOrpayFkQ
    Givon Crump: A target of the staff since September, Crump is another tall wing who is a long-range sharpshooter. Recently ranked # 107 in the Rivals 150, Rivals analyst Jerry Meyer recently called him, "One of the top 10 shooters in his class." While Crump is lacking the athleticism and speed of Wilcox, he is still a great player that would fit ISU's needs.
    Rodney Williams Jr. The top leaper in his class with a developing jumpshot, Williams is a real long shot for the ISU staff. One of the top players in his class, he is considered a strong Minnesota lean - if he improves his grades. He may go to prep school and reclassify into the class of '10 if he doesn't improve his academics.
   2010 prospect Harrison Barnes - The 11th rated player and a 5 star talent by Scout, Barnes is as much of a must get as any prospect out there.
    This is the first of what I hope is many more blog entries to come. I will be back with any updates on these recruits that I find out.

Welcome to the new Clone Chronicles and SB Nation

clockwerks — Tue, 27 May 2008 04:37:11 -0000

Hey Clone Chronicles,

Today is the big day. We've switched your community over to the new SB Nation sports blog platform. My name is Trei, and I'm here to help you get adjusted to the new home we've built for you. If you have questions or trouble with the new system, post a comment in this thread and myself or one of the team (lovitt, sixfoot6 or odacrem) will try to point you in the right direction.

Before we begin, I want to let you know we still consider this a beta platform, so don't be surprised if you find a few bugs or if everything isn't exactly right yet. We hope you'll take the time to report any problems you encounter at bugreport@sbnation.com. We'll be continuing to make changes and improving things.

Please take a few minutes to read about what's new below. But if you just can't wait to jump in, here are some quick things to check out:

Sign up for your SB Nation network account and claim your old blog accounts
Once you're logged in, press your Z key in any thread with new comments
Explore your dashboard and setup your profile
Read the guide to the new FanPost editor
Install the FanShot bookmarklet and post videos to Clone Chronicles from YouTube or images from Flickr
Click the "Rec" button on posts and comments to help other people find the good stuff.
Customize display options on your Edit Settings page

What Has Changed

SB Nation Network Accounts - the Big Change

Readers across all of our blogs told us they wanted one account to use on every SB Nation blog. To make this work, we're requiring that everyone create a new SB Nation network account. In most cases you should be able to keep your old username, but a few of you may have to choose something new, since every other community in SB Nation will be going through this same transition. We tried to be as fair as possible in deciding who gets to keep which name, using a formula that takes into account length of membership and frequency of activity.

We want to make it as easy as possible for you to participate on all of our blogs, but we don't want to encourage everyone to start visiting rival team blogs and initiating flame wars. To maintain friendly communities we ask that you explicitly join each blog in order to participate. It's a two-click process, but it does means accepting each blog's community guidelines. Just as you join each blog individually, you can be banned on each blog individually.

You can claim old accounts from multiple SB Nation blogs, and your new username will be retroactively attached to all your old comments and diaries. So now you'll be able to access all your writings from your single profile page... like magic.

To get started, click here to claim your old blog accounts and create a new SB Nation network account.

FanPosts (the Section Formerly Known as Diaries)

We changed their name. Why? Because we took this major upgrade as an opportunity to leave behind some vocabulary that never made much sense for a sports blog. SB Nation is the network of, by and for fans, and these are the blog posts we make. So we call them FanPosts. When you're at a bar telling someone to check out your online sports opinions, you don't have to suggest they read your diary.

FanPosts are displayed differently on the homepage - we include your avatar to give more credit for the time you spend writing great posts. The new post editor has a WYSIWYG view that provides easy formatting. It also auto-saves drafts so you don't have to worry about losing your work when you compose a post within the web browser. And you can now associate teams, players and games with your posts: these tools promote your FanPosts on our new team, player and game pages - across the entire network.

The new system does not work like the old diary editor. For example, in HTML mode the new editor doesn't auto-create a new paragraph from two line breaks. But it does offer a whole array of new features. Look for the blinking help button on the right side of the FanPost editor for quick tips, and take a look at our full guide to writing FanPosts on the new platform.

IMPORTANT - if you write your posts in Microsoft Word or some other off-line editor, you will get the most reliable behavior if you cut & paste your post into the HTML view of the FanPost editor. And if you do that, remember to wrap <p></p> tags around each paragraph so your text doesn't run together.

Visual Redesign

This one is probably the most obvious change of all. Like other major websites working to improve readability for their audience, we've adopted a fixed-width layout optimized for the 1024 x 768 resolution used by the majority of Clone Chronicles and SB Nation network users. Use the switcher below the user menu if you prefer the wider layout designed for 1280 monitors. We've introduced a top navigation bar with quick links into old and new sections of the site. We also polished a few edges, made some things larger, others smaller and moved a few boxes here and there. More changes and adjustments to come.

Search

We've completely replaced the old search engine with a new one. We're excited to make it easier to find old posts and comments, but we've only taken our first pass on the tools we're offering. We're focused on making search even better than what you had before, so please know that we're aware search is missing key features and we're working on it.

What's New

Schedule, Scores, Stats and Roster

Clone Chronicles now has all the basic information about the Iowa St. Cyclones and hundreds of other teams. During games you'll see a regularly updated line score, and as the season progresses we'll track team stat totals and leaders. This is just our first step, so look for us to publish more detailed and archival stats in the future. The best part about all this sports data is that we've integrated it directly into the blog so. We now have special pages that aggregate all blog posts written about games, players and teams.

Recommending FanPosts

Some writing deserves more attention and more conversation. If you want to bump a FanPost up to the top and keep it there for awhile, just click the 'Rec' link under the body of the post. When a FanPost receives enough recommendations it will make the recommended list.

Auto-refreshing Comments

You no longer need to refresh the page to see new comments. If you're logged in, new comments will automatically appear on the page every few seconds. When you post a comment, the page will not refresh either. If you want to quickly cycle through all the new comments, you can press the C key on your keyboard. Unmark a new comment after you've read it with the X key. And use the Z key if you want to umark comments as you're cycling through them.

As you use these shortcuts to cycle through comments, press the R key to reply to the current comment. All these helpful keyboard shortcuts are listed at the top of each comments section for reference.

Recommending Comments

Now you can reward those folks who take the time to look up stats and make smart arguments in the comments. Next to each comment there is an 'actions' link that you can click to find the recommend and flag options.

Flagging Comments

To help the moderators on a site, we've built-in tools that let you flag comments that are spam, trolling or just plain inappropriate. Only moderators can see those flags.

FanShots

Many members of the community just want to post that one link, video, photo or quote, but don't need a full FanPost. We've got you covered: FanShots let you share YouTube videos, Flickr or PhotoBucket photos, quotes from articles, portions of chat transcripts, top 5 lists and simple links. If it's a video or image we'll put a thumbnail on the homepage when you post it.

For those of you who are experienced internet hunter-gatherers of Iowa St. Cyclones material, install the bookmarklet onto the links bar of your browser and share FanShots with the community from wherever on the web you find that killer quote or photo.

Avatars

Upload an image so folks can see your custom avatar on your profile, your FanPosts, and all your comments.

Network Profiles

Now that we have unified SB Nation network accounts, your profile will be your central hub for all of your activity on any blogs where you are a member.

Network bar

The top bar stays with you on all SB Nation blogs. It's a quick way to login and logout. When you're logged in, you'll see your avatar and screen name which links to your profile. The icon to the right leads to your Dashboard area where you can edit your settings, profile, account details and any FanPosts or FanShots you've published. As we add more blogs to the new SB Nation network, the My Blogs menu will be a handy way to navigate between the blogs you've joined.

-------

There are plenty more small changes and additions we've made, so please take a careful look around and explore this new system. We appreciate your patience and hope you'll help us improve the new platform for this and all the other SB Nation blogs.

And in case you missed it, you'll want to start by claiming your old blog accounts and creating a new SB Nation network account.

Wes Eikmeier

TB — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 17:49:58 -0000

In case y'all want to watch Iowa State recruit Wes Eikmeier's state championship game in Nebraska, here is a link for you.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX

Looking for Mt. Pleasant People, Thoughts on Baseball in Iowa

Mon, 18 Feb 2008 21:20:47 -0000

Hi, over at Royals Review I've profiled Mt. Pleasant, which happens to be, strangely enough, a KC Royals Radio affiliate.

http://www.royalsreview.com/story/20...

While I know Mt. P is in the heart of Hawkeye Country, I figured there was a good chance that there are also some Clone fans around from there.

My question is, are there any Royals fans actually in the Mt. Pleasant/Henry County area? I live in Iowa City, and it seems like this part of the state is strong Cubs country, with the Cardinals running a distant second.

The Royals also are affiliated with the Burlington Bees, which may mean something, or, may not.

I'd love to hear some local feedback. And feedback about IOwa State? Is the campus pretty much behind the Cubs?

Tickets for KU Game???

mikvogel — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:14:11 -0000

Hey there,

I'm looking for 4 lower level tickets to the KU game on the 27th?

My wife's granfather turns 80 this month and is a long-time supporter of the team and we'd love to take him to the game to celebrate!

Please drop me a line at-

mikvogel "at" gmail dot com

Thanks!

TDs: The Runs Batted In of College Football Statistics (Part Two)

The Boy — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 02:23:54 -0000

Okay, so last time around, I talked about Points Per Play (PPP) as the football version of Slugging %. In baseball, OPS (On-Base + Slugging) is one of the most telling, easy, reliable stats around. It’s great because it’s flexible. There are two different ways to put together a strong OPS—either by getting on base a lot or by hitting for power—and the best hitters do both. You find consistency and explosiveness in one measure.

So if PPP is equivalent to Slugging % (explosiveness), what’s equivalent to On-Base % (consistency)? Success Rate, that’s what.

In its most basic form, Success Rate is simply the percentage of time in which a play is deemed ‘successful’. It is a measure I culled from Football Outsiders and tweaked to fit my own purposes. How is ‘success’ determined?

Here are the rules according to down:

1st Down: 50% of necessary yardage. If it's 1st-and-10, you need 5 yards for 'success'.

2nd Down: 70% of necessary yardage (rounded up to the nearest yard, of course). If it's 2nd-and-10, you need 7 yards for 'success'. 2nd-and-15? 10 yards.

3rd and 4th Downs: 100% of necessary yardage. I figure this requires no explanation.

In all, any given play has about a 43% chance of ‘success.’

Success Rate measures consistency the same way that On-Base % does for baseball. It’s a lot harder to score in baseball if you’re not getting on-base. Sure, you can still hit a homerun, but in general, less people on-base leads to less scoring opportunities, which leads to less runs.

In football, a low success rate limits your chances in the same way. Sure, you can score on a 99-yard TD run, and sure, you can consistently gain 10 yards on 3rd-and-9 to sustain a drive (leading to something like a 33.3% success rate)...but you’re playing with fire. The odds of consistently moving the ball like that are minimal.

To illustrate the usefulness of Success Rates, let’s look at the success rates for each of the Big 12 Offenses.

Texas Tech 53.6%

Missouri 51.0%

Oklahoma State 50.2%

Kansas 50.1%

Nebraska 48.8%

Oklahoma 48.9%

Texas 47.4%

Texas A&M 45.7%

Kansas State 45.5%

Colorado 39.6%

Baylor 38.5%

Iowa State 36.5%

Aside from a couple exceptions (Nebraska above Texas?), that’s pretty much a rundown of the conference’s top offenses, is it not?

Success Rate is a fantastic tool, and I used it more than just about anything else when I was previewing Mizzou games this year (example here). It can be used to judge teams in every possible way—how they do in close games, how well they run (or defend the run), how well they play in the redzone, et cetera.

And it becomes an even better tool when teamed with the Points Per Play (PPP) measure we discussed in Part One. Quick recap: based on the average number of points scored from any yardline on the field, I came up with a way to create a ‘point value’ for each play of a game by comparing the beginning value of a play compared to where it ended up. It is the "slugging %" to Success Rate’s "on-base %" in the OPS equation. So if On-Base Plus Slugging = OPS, then what is Success Rate plus Points Per Play? S&P!

S&P, like Success Rate, is an extremely versatile tool. You can compare offenses, defenses, running backs, just about anything. To illustrate the usefulness of S&P, let’s look at the four Heisman finalists.

Tim Tebow

PASSING: 52.5% success rate + 0.62 PPP = 1.15 S&P
RUSHING: 54.8% success rate + 0.54 PPP = 1.09 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 54.6% success rate + 0.53 PPP = 1.08 S&P

Colt Brennan

PASSING: 53.7% success rate + 0.53 PPP = 1.07 S&P
RUSHING: 47.2% success rate + 0.38 PPP = 0.86 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 52.9% success rate + 0.44 PPP = 0.97 S&P

Chase Daniel

PASSING: 51.4% success rate + 0.46 PPP = 0.97 S&P
RUSHING: 47.1% success rate + 0.38 PPP = 0.86 S&P
ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 50.4% success rate + 0.39 PPP = 0.90 S&P

For the three QB finalists, you can start to see how this single number—S&P—can take into account everything from Tebow’s rushing TDs to Brennan’s insane yardage totals to Daniel’s nation-leading third down percentage. They had similar numbers, though when schedule strength is taken into account (I've got ways to do this, but not until I have everybody's games entered), Tebow comes out far ahead. It’s why I’d have voted for him even though I wasn’t remarkably impressed with the 20 mostly-short-yardage rushing TDs.

Okay, so I just came up with a complete different way to determine that Tim Tebow should have won the Heisman. Woo. I could have used yards and TDs to figure that out. What use do these new-fangled stats have if they’re just going to lead to the same conclusions as the, uhh, old-fangled stats? That’s where Darren McFadden comes in.

Darren McFadden

RUSHING: 46.8% success rate + 0.34 PPP = 0.81 S&P

And he was the QB in the WildHog Formation, so...

ALL PLAYS BEHIND CENTER: 48.3% success rate + 0.71 PPP = 1.19 S&P

As a point of comparison, McFadden’s 0.81 S&P would have been #13 in the Big 12. Jorvorskie Lane (ATM) had a 1.09, DeMarco Murray (OU) a 0.97, and Chris Brown (OU) had a 0.85.

McFadden is obviously very good, but the consensus "best RB in college football" wasn’t as effective at running the ball in 2007 as he was at being a threat to run the ball...if that makes any sense. With McFadden sharing the backfield, Felix Jones pulled off an insane 1.17 rushing S&P, and the WildHog was quite effective in giving McFadden the option of running, throwing, or handing to Jones and Peyton Hillis. But for every highlight reel run McFadden ripped off this season, there were about 10 1-yard runs. This is why a theoretically explosive offense like Arkansas’ ground to a halt against good defenses like Auburn (lost 9-7) and Missouri (lost 38-7). The offense was perceived as better than it actually was, and its low success rate (44.6% for the season) and S&P (0.81...the same as stagnant Texas A&M’s) betrayed it throughout the season.

(And here’s another interesting stat: McFadden accounted for 111.04 ‘points’ running the ball in 2007. Tebow accounted for 107.05.)

In other words, there’s a reason why Darren McFadden didn’t deserve the Heisman, no matter how good he looks in the open field. It wasn't his fault that Arkansas' passing game sucked, and it wasn't his fault that defenses did whatever they could to force other players to beat them...but you have to be more than a threat to win the Heisman--you have to still produce as well.

Okay, time for another plea. I really want to be able to test the limits of S&P, PPP, Success Rates, and lots of other stats I have yet to reveal, but I’m in need of some volunteers to help me plow through the remaining 2007 games. As I mentioned last time, games take about 30 minutes to enter (once you figure out what you’re doing), and you can feel free to enter games for whichever team you like (other than the ones I’ve already done, anyway—Big 12, Hawaii, Florida, Arkansas).

If you want to help either shoot me a response on this thread with your e-mail address, or contact me at BillConnelly1@gmail.com. Thanks again.

TDs: The Runs Batted In of College Football Statistics (Part One)

The Boy — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 18:31:11 -0000

Hey, this is The Boy from Rock M Nation. I posted this over at Sunday Morning QB a couple days ago, but I figured I might as well post it on the Big 12 blogs too...let me know what you think.

OFFSEASON PROJECT! Over at RMN, I’ve been playing with the ‘Beyond the Box Score’ idea (calling it that as an ode to the wonderful SBN sabermetrics blog of the same name) as it applies to college football stats.

I’ve been cranking out play-by-plays for 2007 games as fast as possible—as I post for a Mizzou blog, I’ve focused on Big 12 teams, Mizzou opponents, and teams with fellow Heisman finalists—but this is a massive undertaking, and I need some volunteers to enter play-by-play for the games I have yet to enter from the 2007. They take about 30-45 minutes each, and I’m figuring I’ll need about 6-10 volunteers to finish this stuff in a timely enough fashion to do something about it before the 2008 season starts orbiting everybody’s attention span, so...actually, how about I just show you why I’m doing this?

It’s fair to say that the Bill James Revolution has reshaped the game of baseball over the last 25-30 years (for some franchises, anyway...my Pirates sure haven’t paid any attention). I’d go into detail about all the different statistics that have come about due to James and his disciples, but I’m going to be honest here—if you don’t know/care about Bill James, then you probably won’t care at all about this post.

The typical statline for a hitter hasn’t changed much over the years. Chances are, when a guy is at bat, the stats they’ll show on TV are Batting Average / HRs / RBIs. However, as thousands of words are spent in deciphering baseball stats each year, it’s becoming more and more obvious that those categories—the last one in particular—are pretty worthless in evaluating the quality of a hitter. Who cares about a .300 batting average if it’s all singles and it’s not complemented by any walks or anything? Who cares about 25 HRs if you strike out 200 times and don’t ever get on base otherwise? And who cares about 100 RBIs if it’s complemented by a .225 average and only comes about because the guys in front of you are fantastic hitters?

Having a high number of RBIs does say something about your propensity for timely hits, but it says even more about the ability of the folks ahead of you to get on base. If the dude in front of you in the batting order has a .220 on-base %, you’re probably not going to get too many RBIs no matter how good a hitter you are. It’s the same way with touchdowns, really. Jerome Bettis’s final season was great for my fantasy team, but his "2 carries, 3 yards, 2 TDs" lines really didn’t contribute much to the team overall. I loved The Bus as much as the next guy, but just about anybody could have come in and plunged in from the 1. Getting the ball to the 1 was the much bigger accomplishment.

(Since I’m a Mizzou fan, you can probably gather that I wasn’t all that impressed by Tim Tebow’s "20 passing TDs/20 rushing TDs" stat that everybody was in love with since half his TDs came from a couple yards out and Chase Daniel could have done the same if he never handed the ball off either. That’s true, but in the end I’d have probably voted for Tebow to win the Heisman anyway. You know...if I had a vote...)

I’ve been entering play-by-play for Big 12 games for the last two seasons, and I’ve been able to do a lot with the data...enough that I want to be able to do it with the entire country’s data. The biggest thing I’ve accomplished so far is coming up with measures called EqPts (Equivalent Points) and PPP (EqPts per Play), based on the chart below, which shows the average number of points that could be expected from any specific yard line.

As you see, gains in certain areas of the field are worth different amounts. I did the same thing for each down.

So a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-5 from your opponent’s 39 would only be worth about 0.19 points on the first graph, but it’s worth a huge 2.24 points on the second one. Stuff like that is interesting to a nerd like me. And here’s the most interesting part—averaging these two EqPts figures together, and adding in a measure of turnover costliness (into which I go into more detail in my Beyond the Box Score glossary), ends up doing a pretty good job of coming up with how many points were scored in a given game.

For instance...on December 1, Missouri beat Kansas, 36-28. MU’s offense accounted for 29.47 EqPts (from the first graph) and 42.98 Down-Dependent EqPts (from the second). That averages out to 36.23. KU had 30.69 EqPts and 33.95 DD-EqPts, averaging 32.32. KU also had 6.83 points worth of turnovers (again, click the link above if you want information on that), and applying half of that to KU’s score and half to MU’s, you end up with an EqPts final score of MU 38.98, KU 28.91. Pretty damn close. On the same day, OU beat OSU, 49-17. The EqPts score was OU 47.88, OSU 15.65.

Of course, it doesn’t always calculate closely—the ball’s oblong and simply doesn’t always bounce the way it’s supposed to—but looking at things this way gives you a lot better indication of who accounted for a team’s points than total yards or TDs or yards per carry.

For now, let’s pretend that PPP is the football equivalent of Slugging %. What’s the football equivalent of On-Base %? We’ll get back to that in Part Two...if anybody’s actually interested, anyway.

And if you want to help me enter play-by-plays, either shoot me a response on this thread with your e-mail address, or contact me at BillConnelly1@gmail.com. Thanks!

Anonymous Comment Posting Allowed

CrossCyed — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 02:56:55 -0000

I turned it on to allow unregistered people to comment, but you should totally get an account, since it's the cool thing to do.

--CC

Purpose Losing/Play Calling

Sun, 09 Sep 2007 05:18:26 -0000

Deece made the point on the CyHawk State of the Nations show (which I love, despite sometimes being unable to handle Miller) last week that Chizek may have basically refused to throw to Bylthe/spread the field because he's trying to establish the new Cyclone style/identity/etc. (Dude has given the same analysis multiple times, including last season re: McDermott.)

I really found this fairly ridiculous, even more so because he was supportive of this strategy. The idea that "I'll lose/run un productive plays because I'm establishing some macho attitude" is so incredibly misguided... and yet, sometimes I actually get that vibe from ole Gene.

Anyway, this is mostly just a side rant on a major problem in sports, namely the idea that certain ways of playing are somehow morally superior to others. (Small ball over walks/power in baseball, SEC behemoth ball over a spread offense in football etc.) All that should matter is winning, no matter how you do it...

What's happening on the O-Line?

Wed, 18 Jul 2007 20:21:27 -0000

I'm new to blogging, so I ask, are diaries the same as threads? I wish to discuss the Coach McFarland interview posted at CN, but I don't know what format here to use.

If Tibbs moves from RT to OG, as McFarland suggests in the interview, I've got some questions that might open up a discussion:

1. Is Tibbs being counted on to play guard? If so, since I believe a three-man rotation is what the coaches prefer, who's out? (Tibbs, Schmeling, Stephens, Blaes, also Alvarez was backup at RG during spring ball, I believe.)

It sounds as though McFarland might be counting on Lamaak (sp) and maybe Hulbert even though they're just rFr. Although you'd think, generally, coaches like tall guys at OT, could McFarland be thinking about moving an athletic Blaes to RT?

McFarland did not mention Johnson at center, IIRC. Might have been an oversight only. Although he did say Schmeling might play some center. I wonder if Schmeling might not be the interior line utility man this fall, starting at one guard slot and backing up at center.

Is RT the key position on the line yet undecided? Appears that way to me. What do you all think? Anyone have any inside knowledge about what the thinking is about the O-line at this point?

Based on Sheppard's interview at CN (go read it if you haven't, it's free access and highly informative), I can't help but think this team could be fiesty this fall -- if the O-line performance can reach toward average.

Thanks.

(I'm pretty confused right now about tag lines, diary and extended diary. Have I posted correctly?)

CC cited by ESPN.com recruiting service

CrossCyed — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 01:59:17 -0000

Scroll down to Ethan Tuftee.

Pretty freakin' cool, even if it's piddly.

Tom Dienhart Still Hates ISU

CrossCyed — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 22:12:31 -0000

Oh boy.

Ranking the top 40 players in the Big 12, Dienhart again shows that he has no idea about Iowa State. The Cyclones' two representatives on the list are Alvin Bowen at #12 and Bret Meyer at #33.

Sure seems like someone is missing, doesn't it?

Welcome to Diaries!

CrossCyed — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 02:46:18 -0000

Diaries are a unique feature of the SBNation and are meant to empower the community. They are located right beneath the front page poll on the right hand side. This is a spot for you to post news, thoughts or general ideas not related to the main threads/posts. There are buttons below the posting area to help you with your diaries.

Many SBNation sites have established and well-updated diary sections that provide as much to the site as the main blogger. Everyone is encouraged to start a diary if they feel like it, if even just to give it a try. You might as well go for it. You can even add extra info that someone could click through to....

like right here. I suppose this is for extra juicy tidbits.

You can add polls as well. In addition, use tags to identify the scope and intentions of your diary.

Poll